More Wi-Max users coming - and mobile ones too!

WiMax has the potential to effectively compete against LTE but its success rests on emerging market maturity and the roll out of mobile services.

WiMax's ability to garner a loyal fan base in emerging markets is a critical success factor as to whether the technology thrives, dies or just stays alive in the long term, according to research published this week.

Mobile operators are continuing to edge towards long term evolution (LTE), meaning there is a great deal of current uncertainty, but if players get it right with emerging audiences, WiMax has the potential to establish itself as a mature technology that can effectively compete, claims Senza Fili Consulting's report entitled 'WiMax: Ambitions and Reality.'

The wireless consultancy firm predicts that there will be 54 million WiMax subscribers by 2012, driven primarily by emerging marketing and the roll out of mobile services.

"The recent inclusion of WiMax as an IMT-2000 technology will enable mobile operators to deploy it more widely, but the mobile market will take longer than the fixed one to grow, because most mobile operators do not yet need a data-only wireless network to complement their 3G networks", said Monica Paolini, the report's author.

Almost two-thirds (61 per cent) of WiMax subscribers will make use of the technology for mobile access, according to the report, which clearly demonstrates that the demand for mobile connectivity exists plentifully. A third of users will also embrace fixed-access WiMax offerings.

However, despite WiMax's potential in helping to make mobile broadband truly pervasive, device availability remains a challenge.

"To motivate subscribers to sign up for service, operators need compelling devices with new form factors, ranging from CE devices for developed markets to basic portable-data devices for emerging markets," added Paolini.

"But so far vendors are still searching for an innovative vision for the development of WiMax devices", she added.